The Gambler's Fallacy

In the field of gambling, as in almost any other field, there are bound to be some popular preconceived notions among those who take part. It is simple human nature to want to see connections between people and events that may or may not exist, and to want to attempt to see the best possible side of every single situation. It is through this very human process that the set of notions often comprising the Gambler's Fallacy came to see the light in the field.

What Is the Gambler's Fallacy?

The Gambler's Fallacy is the belief that a future event can be prdicted based on past events. It usually finds its expression in one or all of these four concepts:


1) A certain outcome of a set of events is more likely to occur because it has happened before in the recent past;

2) a particular result of a set of events is more likely to occur because it has not happened in the recent past;

3) a particular result is less likely to be found because it has happened in the recent past; and

4) a particular outcome is less likely to happen because it has not happened in the recent past.


Consider the act of tossing a coin to determine a particular situation: do you choose heads or tails? How do you base your decisions? Do you believe that heads will appear more often or vice versa? If you just got a result of heads, do you choose tails? And so on. The truth is that probability is probability, and no matter how many times you flip the coin, your chances of seeing heads or tails upon landing will remain 1 out of 2, or 50%.

The Gambler's Fallacy and Winning at Roulette

Now, how does this apply to gambling at roulette? Suppose a red number has come up three times in a row. Now, one roulette gambler might believe that red is "hot" and so he will bet on red. Another person might believe that after all those reds, a black number is now "due" to come up, so he will bet on black.


Both of these gamblers are, in fact, falling victim to the Gambler's Fallacy. The truth of the matter is that whatever happened on the last three spins of the roulette wheel has nothing to do with what will happen on the next spin. The odds of getting a red number on the next spin are always 18 out of 38 in American Roulette, and always 18 out of 37 in European or French Roulette. Nothing will ever change that. And the odds of winning at roulette remain the same regardless of whether you're playing online roulette or land-based roulette.

For Best Results when Playing Roulette

The overall point? Keep the Gambler's Fallacy in mind when placing your roulette bets. Believing in your own ability to win is almost an essential point, but balance superstition and reason for best results when playing roulette.